After Sindoor, Calculate
(Source: The Indian Express, Editorial Page)
Also Read: The Indian Express Editorial Analysis: 07 June 2025
Also Read: The Hindu Editorial Analysis: 07 June 2025
| Topic: GS2 – International Relations (India–Pakistan–China Relations, Strategic Autonomy, Diplomacy) |
| Context |
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Background:
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Operation Sindoor was launched as a calibrated response to cross-border terrorism, involving surgical strikes with minimal collateral damage.
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It followed a pattern of limited operations like the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot airstrike, but with greater restraint and maturity in diplomatic messaging.
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India now finds itself at a strategic inflection point, with heightened tensions in the region but also a chance to redefine its global posture.
A Shift from Tactical Victories to Strategic Vision
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Tactical victories like Sindoor can deter adversaries, but sustainable peace requires long-term deterrence strategies.
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India must avoid falling into a pattern of reactive aggression, instead focusing on geopolitical foresight and diplomatic statecraft.
The Pakistan-China Axis: A Strategic Reality:
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Pakistan continues to leverage Chinese political, financial, and military backing to maintain strategic parity with India.
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China’s support has extended to vetoes at the UN, supply of nuclear technologies, and encirclement strategies in the Indian Ocean.
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India must prepare for 2-front strategic management:
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Active deterrence on the western front (Pakistan)
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Containment and coalition-building on the northern/eastern front (China)
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Managing U.S. Ties with Strategic Autonomy:
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The U.S.–India relationship has grown across defence, technology, and trade.
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However, overdependence risks compromising India’s traditional strategic autonomy.
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India must engage the U.S. on mutual terms, while also preserving space for independent decision-making in multilateral forums.
Reasserting Strategic Ambiguity:
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The editorial calls for a policy of “strategic ambiguity”—avoiding hard commitments, allowing room for flexible response.
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This posture helps India avoid entrapment in binary alliances, and gives it leverage in both Eastern (China-Russia) and Western (U.S.-EU) groupings.
Regional Diplomacy Must Complement Military Strength:
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India’s military confidence must be matched with diplomatic efforts in:
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Backchannel talks with Pakistan to prevent escalation.
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Confidence-building with neighbors (Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan) to offset Chinese influence.
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Reviving SAARC or BIMSTEC mechanisms to demonstrate regional leadership.
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Strategic Objectives Post-Sindoor:
| Strategic Pillar | Current Reality | Recommended Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Border Security (Pakistan) | Cross-border surgical strikes | Institutional deterrence + intelligence-led ops |
| China Containment | LAC standoffs and reactive diplomacy | Quad strengthening + maritime alliances |
| U.S. Partnership | Defence and tech-driven convergence | Retain autonomy, diversify alliances (France, Japan) |
| Global Positioning | Middle power status | Leadership in Global South + digital diplomacy |
Way Forward:
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Institutionalize strategic planning across MEA, NSCS, and armed forces post-military operations.
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Prioritize confidence-building and crisis prevention mechanisms alongside hard power displays.
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Use India’s middle power status to act as a regional balancer and global negotiator on platforms like G20, BRICS, and the Indo-Pacific.
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Avoid letting tactical success blind long-term calculations. As the title says: After Sindoor, calculate.
| Practice Question:
“India’s foreign policy must transition from tactical responses to long-term strategic calibration.” Discuss in the context of recent military operations and shifting global alignments. (GS Paper 3 | 250 words | 15 marks) |
