Tracking the Monsoon
(Source: The Indian Express, Editorial Page)
Also Read: The Indian Express Editorial Analysis: 16 June 2025
Also Read: The Hindu Editorial Analysis: 16 June 2025
| Topic: GS1 – Geographical Phenomena, GS3 – Agriculture & Food Security |
| Context |
| The editorial highlights concerns over the delayed and erratic southwest monsoon in 2025. It emphasizes the monsoon’s impact on agricultural output, commodity prices, and economic growth, particularly when compounded by geopolitical and climatic shocks. |
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Over 55% of India’s net sown area is rain-fed, making the monsoon essential for food grain production.
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A delayed or deficient monsoon affects Kharif crop sowing, impacting both inflation and rural demand.
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In 2025, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted revival by mid-June after a premature start and stall.
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The northwest and eastern belts, including Punjab, Bihar, and parts of Gujarat, have seen poor rainfall.
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States like Maharashtra and Telangana are also experiencing reservoir stress.
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Crops such as pulses, paddy, and oilseeds are most vulnerable to such rainfall inconsistencies.
Climate Volatility and Policy Implications:
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Events like El Niño, warmer Arabian Sea temperatures, and geopolitical crises (e.g., Ukraine conflict) exacerbate global commodity price volatility.
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Delayed rains could push up food inflation, limit government’s fiscal room, and trigger supply-chain disruptions.
Need for Preparedness and Contingency Planning:
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Centre and states must scale up irrigation, use crop diversification, and activate Minimum Support Price (MSP) and insurance mechanisms.
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The editorial suggests early warning systems, climate-resilient crop varieties, and warehouse stock planning.
Conclusion / Way Forward:
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Policymakers must not take monsoons for granted and prepare for adaptive strategies.
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Climate-resilient farming and data-driven irrigation planning are key to mitigating monsoon volatility.
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A national contingency plan linked with real-time rainfall analytics is the need of the hour.
Rainfall Data and Agricultural Impact (2022–2025)
| Year | Monsoon Onset | Deviation from Normal | Kharif Sowing Impact | Inflation Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | May 31 | -8% | Moderate | WPI food inflation at 9.1% |
| 2023 | June 4 | +2% | Normal | WPI food inflation at 5.6% |
| 2024 | June 3 | -3% | Delayed sowing in eastern India | WPI food inflation at 7.4% |
| 2025 | May 24 (early onset), stalled till June 15 | Data emerging | Expected sowing delays in paddy, pulses | Too early to estimate |
| Practice Question:“Discuss the factors responsible for the variability in the southwest monsoon and its implications for food security and inflation in India.” (250 words) |
