29 April 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis
1. The Pahalgam moment
(Source – Indian Express, Section – The Editorial Page – Page No. – 12)
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Topic: GS2 – International Relations, GS-3 :- Internal Security |
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Context |
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The Recurring Pattern of Terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir
- The article opens by highlighting a persistent cycle of Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and across India.
- These attacks, characterized by brutality and high visibility, periodically incite national outrage and grief.
- The recent Pahalgam attack is described as especially egregious, even by past standards, suggesting a deepening crisis and escalation in the nature of violence perpetrated.
India’s Repeated Responses to Major Attacks
- Historically, India’s responses to major terrorist incidents have followed a recognizable pattern: diplomatic isolation of Pakistan, military mobilization, and international pressure.
- The Parliament attack (2001) and Kaluchak massacre (2002) prompted Operation Parakram and a downgrading of bilateral ties, culminating in a temporary peace accord in 2004.
- However, events like the 26/11 Mumbai attacks showed that while diplomatic measures were often deployed, military retaliation remained restrained, reflecting a cautious, calculated approach to conflict management.
Post-2014 Shift: Aggressive Countermeasures and Diplomacy
- Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s strategy shifted towards a more assertive posture.
- Beyond traditional diplomacy, India intensified counter-terrorism operations, unpredictable and heavy retaliatory firing along the Line of Control (LoC), and international lobbying, particularly through forums like the UN Security Council and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
- Even amid these hardline actions, Modi maintained attempts at diplomatic engagement, exemplified by his Lahore visit — an approach that was, however, undermined by attacks like Pathankot, Uri, and Pulwama.
Evolving Global Context and Diminishing Tolerance for Pakistan
- The international environment surrounding Pakistan’s actions has transformed significantly.
- Earlier, during the US-led war in Afghanistan, Pakistan leveraged its geopolitical importance to shield itself from major punitive actions despite sponsoring terrorism.
- However, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s declining strategic value, and growing frustrations among Gulf nations over Islamist extremism have eroded global tolerance.
- Meanwhile, India’s rising stature and credibility on the world stage have ensured unprecedented international support post-Pahalgam, altering the diplomatic balance.
India’s Current and Future Strategic Calculations
- India’s immediate reaction to the Pahalgam tragedy included downgrading relations and suspending the Indus Water Treaty, a significant diplomatic step.
- Beyond these measures, India is poised for a large-scale diplomatic campaign aimed at isolating Pakistan internationally, targeting its military assistance programs, curtailing non-humanitarian aid, pushing for terrorist listings at the UNSC, and reinforcing FATF pressures.
- Modi’s dual focus is clear: justice for the victims and dismantling the broader terror networks in Pakistan.
Security and Military Strategy: Balancing Retaliation and Restraint
- The article emphasizes that India’s military response will be deliberate and calculated, balancing retaliation with strategic surprise and avoiding predictable patterns.
- Intelligence support from global partners and an expansive set of military and non-conventional options are likely.
- India appears determined to achieve both immediate tactical victories and sustain a long-term campaign against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
Risks of Escalation: Pakistan’s Limited War Strategy
- The analysis suggests that Pakistan might aim to provoke a limited conventional war, hoping for international mediation that would revive global focus on Kashmir.
- The Pakistan Army, facing internal challenges, could exploit the crisis to reaffirm its dominance.
- However, nuclear threats are downplayed, with the Ukraine conflict cited as an example of how nuclear weapons act more as deterrents than actual war-fighting tools.
- Any Pakistani escalation would be closely monitored and met with calculated countermeasures.
Preserving Kashmir’s Peace and Progress
- The article strongly warns against letting Pakistan’s actions derail Kashmir’s quest for peace.
- It stresses that communal harmony must be preserved and that Kashmir’s development should not become collateral damage in the security-driven responses.
- Ending terrorism would require not just military action but also global efforts to weaken Pakistan’s military dominance and support democratic structures within the country.
Security Upgrades and the Long-Term Vision for South Asia
- In the immediate aftermath, India must strengthen security in J&K with enhanced technology, defense capabilities, and avoid bureaucratic inertia.
- Yet, the text urges a broader, long-term reflection: ensuring that focus on short-term tactical gains does not eclipse the need for a strategic vision for South Asia’s future.
- India’s fortunes are intricately linked to regional stability, and sustained diplomatic, political, and developmental efforts are essential for lasting peace.
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Practice Question: In light of the recent Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack in Pahalgam, critically analyze India’s evolving security and diplomatic strategy against cross-border terrorism. Discuss the role of international support in shaping India’s response. (250 Words /15 marks) |
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