29 July 2025: Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. Two nations and a river
(Source: Editorial Page, The Indian Express)

Topic: GS1 (Geography – Water Resources), GS2 (International Relations, India-China Relations, Bilateral Issues, Treaties and Agreements), GS3 (Environmental Issues, Infrastructure), GS4 (Ethics in International Relations – Equitable Use, Justice)

Context

This editorial examines the implications of China’s construction of a massive dam on the Brahmaputra River (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) near the India border, and Delhi’s diplomatic response. The new hydropower project has sparked major concerns in India about water security, ecological sustainability, and broader strategic rivalry with China. The issue arises amid already heightened tensions and highlights the absence of a binding water-sharing treaty between the two countries.

Background and Significance

• China has begun constructing what will become the world’s largest hydropower project on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo, just before the river enters India as the Siang/Brahmaputra.

• The dam’s scale—massive generation capacity, cascading hydropower plants, extensive diversion tunnels—could have significant downstream impacts on flow, ecology, agriculture, and human settlements in India’s Northeast, especially Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.

• Unlike with Pakistan (Indus Waters Treaty), India and China only have an MoU for hydrological data exchange during flood season—there’s no comprehensive formal treaty for the Brahmaputra

Water Security and Downstream Impacts

• India is deeply concerned about potential Chinese control over the Brahmaputra’s flow, especially during monsoons and times of drought.

• Risks include sudden water releases causing floods (“water bomb” scenario), reduced flow for agriculture, disruption of downstream hydropower plans, and ecological imbalances in Assam and the Northeast.

• About 30%-35% of Brahmaputra’s total flow is from Chinese territory (mostly glacial melt and rainfall); the rest is from Indian catchments, but the initial volumes and regulation capacities matter for floods and dry seasons.

Geostrategic and Diplomatic Issues

• China’s upstream advantage gives it significant political leverage (potentially using water as a bargaining tool or in “grey zone” hybrid conflict strategies).

• India and China are not signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention, which might otherwise ensure some baseline protections for downstream states.

• Institutional engagement remains limited and vulnerable to breakdowns in broader bilateral relations.

India’s Diplomatic and Strategic Response

• India monitors Chinese developments and has consistently conveyed concern, demanding transparency, consultation, and safeguarding of downstream interests.

• New Delhi is amplifying its own hydropower and storage projects in Arunachal’s Siang region as a counter-strategy to assert riparian rights and manage water security.

• Institutional dialogue remains restricted mainly to an Expert Level Mechanism and diplomatic channels, with periodic breakdowns reflected during border tensions (e.g., after Doklam standoff in 2017, data-sharing was suspended).

Analysis: Broader Implications

• The editorial critiques the current “quiet diplomacy” approach with China, arguing it has not produced adequate transparency or safeguards for Indian interests.

• It highlights the dangers of unilateral decisions on international rivers, the potential for ecological disasters, and the ethical need for multilateralism and cooperation in water governance.

• Drawing lessons from the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, it urges India to push more strongly for institutionalized, legally-binding arrangements with China on the Brahmaputra and other shared rivers.

Way Forward

• India should publicly communicate and diplomatically escalate its concerns—both bilaterally with China and multilaterally, including at UN forums if needed.

• Invest in early warning systems, local disaster preparedness, and rapid infrastructure development in the Northeast to mitigate risk.

• Broaden engagement beyond government-to-government—include scientific, ecological, and civil society voices to press for genuinely sustainable, equitable river management.

• Learn from the IWT experience and pursue formal agreements or at least robust, transparent protocols for transboundary water governance with China.

Practice Question: (GS-2 | 15 Marks | 250 Words) China’s construction of a mega-dam on the Brahmaputra has renewed concerns over water security and transboundary river management in South Asia. Discuss the strategic, environmental, and diplomatic challenges this poses for India. Suggest a comprehensive strategy for India to safeguard its interests as a lower riparian state.

Also Read: The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 29 July 2025

2. Malé outreach

(Source: Editorial Page, The Indian Express)

Topic: GS2 (International Relations, India’s Neighbourhood Policy, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Policy) GS3 (Internal Security – Maritime Security, Economy – Tourism, Developmental Projects) GS1 (Geography – Indian Ocean, Cultural Links) GS4 (Ethics in International Relations, Non-Partisanship)

Context

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Maldives in July 2025 came after a period of diplomatic strain following President Mohamed Muizzu’s “India Out” campaign and calls for an Indian troop withdrawal. The visit, coinciding with the Maldives’ 60th Independence Day, marked a reset in bilateral relations, saw the inauguration of key projects, and demonstrated India’s commitment to its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and regional maritime security.

Background

• Diplomatic Strain:
  Maldives–India ties frayed after Mohamed Muizzu’s election in September 2023 and his initial pro-China tilt, including a January 2024 visit to China and the demand for withdrawal of Indian military personnel by March 2024.

• Context of Visit:
  PM Modi’s July 2025 visit symbolized a turnaround, focusing on strengthening ties, inaugurating development projects, and signing multiple agreements that foster people-centric, future-oriented cooperation.

Significance of the Maldives for India

• Geopolitical Importance:
  The Maldives is critical to India’s maritime security architecture in the Indian Ocean, controlling major trade routes and energy passages. Its proximity (just 70 nautical miles from India’s Minicoy Island) gives it outsized importance in regional geopolitics and the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision.

• Cultural and Historical Bonds:
  India was one of the first to establish diplomatic ties after Maldivian independence in 1965, and both countries share deep cultural, ethnic, and religious links.

Key Outcomes of PM Modi’s Visit

1. Diplomatic Reset and Joint Vision

• Both sides unveiled a new framework for a Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership, focusing on economic integration, security cooperation, and people-to-people ties.

2. Development and Infrastructure

• Inauguration of Indian-funded infrastructure projects: roads, drainage in Addu City, and new defence infrastructure.

• Support for ambitious projects like the Greater Malé Connectivity Project and feasibility studies for further island connectivity.

3. Financial Support

• India extended financial aid, including a bilateral currency swap (USD 400 million, INR 30 billion) to stabilize the Maldivian economy and support its development priorities.

4. People-centric Cooperation

• Agreements to boost education, skills training, and healthcare in the Maldives, including the launch of Indian health initiatives, higher education, start-up incubators, and consulates in both nations.

• Enhanced tourism cooperation, with more support for Maldivian medical evacuations, and housing initiatives.

5. Strategic and Security Collaboration

• Strengthening defense cooperation and joint maritime security to ensure a stable Indian Ocean region.

• Continued medical evacuation platforms and collaborative disaster response mechanisms.

6. Political and Non-Partisan Engagement

• PM Modi’s outreach was deliberately non-partisan, engaging not only the government but the opposition and multiple stakeholders, making India’s support resilient to domestic political shifts in the Maldives.

Broader Analytical Insights for UPSC

• Bilateral Resilience:
  The editorial highlights the importance of institutionalizing ties across party lines to hedge against domestic volatility in small but strategically critical neighbors.

• Neighbourhood First and SAGAR:
  India’s outreach aligns with these doctrines, underlining national security, economics, and regional stability as key drivers.

• Countering China’s Influence:
  India’s pragmatic policy balances economic aid, capacity building, and political engagement to prevent strategic encirclement and promote long-term regional interests.

Way Forward

• Sustained Engagement:
  India should continue robust multi-dimensional diplomacy, deepen institutional cooperation, and build long-term infrastructure and capacity in Maldives.

• Guarding Strategic Interests:
  While Maldives seeks a balanced foreign policy, India must continually innovate and invest to sustain influence amid great power competition.

• Addressing Local Concerns:
  India should ensure projects cater to local developmental needs, thereby winning trust and keeping relations non-partisan and future-focused.

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Practice Question: (GS-2 | 10 Marks | 150 Words) PM Modi’s 2025 visit to the Maldives marked a reset in India-Maldives relations after a period of strain. Critically analyze the significance of this turnaround for India’s Neighbourhood First policy and Indian Ocean security architecture. What challenges does India face in sustaining its influence in the Maldives against the backdrop of great power competition?

Read more – 28 July 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis