30 April 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis
1. The General’s Gamble
(Source – Indian Express, Section – The Editorial Page – Page No. – 08)
| Topic: GS2 – International Relations – India and it’s neighbourhood |
| Context |
|
Sun Tzu’s Wisdom and the Modern Context
- The opening quote from Sun Tzu sets the philosophical and strategic tone for the discussion — emphasizing the critical need for self-awareness and enemy insight in warfare.
- In the current Indo-Pakistani context, this wisdom is deeply relevant. As India considers the use of force against Pakistan, knowing the adversary — particularly General Asim Munir, the Chief of Pakistan’s Army — becomes crucial to ensuring strategic success and avoiding the pitfalls of reactionary conflict.
The Centrality of General Asim Munir
- In today’s Pakistan, civilian control over foreign and security policy has eroded significantly, especially concerning India.
- General Asim Munir holds near-total sway over national security decisions. India must decipher Munir’s motivations behind provocations such as the Pahalgam incident.
- His actions are not merely military gambits but politically charged moves, aimed at strengthening his own authority amidst intense domestic and international pressures.
Pakistan’s Internal Crises
- Munir is navigating an extremely turbulent internal environment. Political instability prevails, worsened by clashes with Imran Khan’s supporters.
- Pakistan’s economic recovery is sluggish, with a growth projection of just 2.7%. Meanwhile, unrest continues in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), and the state’s relations with Taliban-led Afghanistan are strained.
- Amid these conditions, opening a front with India seems less a show of strength and more a desperate consolidation of internal power.
Munir’s Gamble: Rallying Through Confrontation
- There appears to be a method to Munir’s escalation with India. By provoking conflict, especially one painted in communal terms — such as the Pahalgam attack targeting Hindus — he seeks to reignite nationalist fervor in Pakistan.
- He also likely hopes to trigger communal tensions within India, destabilizing it internally and undermining its global image.
- Thus, his strategy intertwines military, ideological, and domestic political objectives.
The Nuclear Shadow and International Manipulation
- Munir’s calculus also hinges on international dynamics. By raising the specter of nuclear escalation, he aims to provoke global intervention — historically a pattern where major powers, particularly the U.S., push for de-escalation and talks, often pressuring India.
- This maneuver seeks to freeze Indian military action and extract concessions on Kashmir.
- Therefore, defeating this diplomatic trap becomes as vital as any battlefield victory.
India’s Strategic Imperatives
- India’s response must be carefully calibrated. Internally, it must guard against any communal unrest, thereby denying Munir a key psychological and ideological victory.
- Externally, Delhi must manage the narrative to ensure that the international community sees India’s actions as a justified response to terrorism, not as reckless militarism.
- Preserving global neutrality — or even support — is essential to counter Pakistan’s diplomatic gambit.
Geopolitical Shifts in India’s Favor
- India today stands in a different global position than in past crises. The United States’ strategic priorities have shifted post-Afghanistan, reducing Pakistan’s leverage.
- Instead, India has become more central to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
- Likewise, Middle Eastern powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, once close to Pakistan, now enjoy stronger ties with India and are unlikely to support Islamabad.
- The only significant outlier remains China, which continues its traditional support for Pakistan, albeit with some restraint.
India’s Evolution in Coercive Diplomacy
- India has matured in its use of coercive diplomacy, leveraging fears of regional instability to compel international attention and isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
- However, this tool must be used judiciously. A disproportionate military response might satisfy short-term public sentiment but fail to deter future attacks or alter Pakistan’s strategic behavior.
- Instead, the long-term goal must be to erode the structural impunity that allows Pakistan to sponsor terrorism.
Breaking the Cycle of Provocation and Retaliation
- A recurring pattern haunts Indo-Pakistan relations: Pakistan provokes, India retaliates, international actors intervene, and Pakistan temporarily retreats. India must now break this cycle.
- This involves not only punishing the perpetrators but undermining the very political system — currently symbolized by Munir — that perpetuates these provocations.
- That may include fostering dialogue with pro-democracy and reformist elements within Pakistan who oppose the military’s dominance.
Recasting the Kashmir Framework
- Since the 2019 constitutional changes in Jammu & Kashmir, India has aimed to rewrite the rules of engagement that Pakistan has tried to fix since acquiring nuclear weapons in the late 1980s.
- This shift is not just about territory but about reframing the ideological and strategic narrative of the conflict.
- Any military action now must serve this broader strategic transformation, not just immediate retribution.
Conclusion:
- India’s challenge lies not just in tactical military success, but in strategically defeating General Munir’s larger political game.
- This includes maintaining national unity, shaping international opinion, and deepening Pakistan’s internal contradictions.
- Success will depend on disciplined restraint, strategic clarity, and the ability to act with long-term objectives rather than short-term emotional impulses.
| Practice Question: In the context of renewed cross-border tensions between India and Pakistan, analyze how internal political instability and strategic calculations in Pakistan influence its foreign policy. How should India frame its response to safeguard national security while maintaining international support and internal cohesion? (250 Words /15 marks) |
Read more – 29 April 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis
