24 April 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. The road from Pahalgam

(Source – Indian Express, Section – The Ideas Page – Page No. – 13)

Topic: GS3 – Internal Security

Context

A terrorist attack at Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam killed at least 26 people, breaking a long-standing norm against targeting tourists in Jammu & Kashmir.

A Departure from an Unspoken Pact

• The attack at Baisaran meadow marks a significant shift in the historical pattern of terrorist operations in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K).
• Traditionally, a tacit agreement existed among terrorist factions to avoid targeting tourists.
• This was grounded in the recognition that the local population is heavily reliant on tourism for economic survival.
• Even during the most violent years in the 1990s and early 2000s, this unspoken rule largely held.
• The recent incident breaks this understanding, as it involves a mass killing of tourists and a local resident.
• Historical data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal confirms that attacks on tourists were rare, and even then, often excluded from broader violent strategies — with Hindu pilgrims being notable exceptions.

Impact on Security and Tourism

• While the immediate aftermath of the attack will involve heightened security measures and likely a temporary slump in tourist activity, this event does not mark a drastic strategic departure in terrorist operations.
• The pattern remains consistent with past attacks: momentary disruptions followed by security recalibrations.
• The fundamental trajectory of terrorism in the region remains unchanged, suggesting that while shocking, the Pahalgam incident may not significantly alter long-term conflict dynamics.

The Illusion of a Strategic Shift to Jammu

• The article refutes the narrative of a “strategic shift” of terrorism from Kashmir to the Jammu region, especially in light of the June-July 2024 attacks in Reasi.
• Despite perceptions of Jammu as a safer area, data points to consistent violence — with 59 fatalities recorded in 2023.
• The temporary spike in violence was more a result of weakened security deployment rather than a fundamental strategic realignment.
• Once addressed, the focus of terrorist operations reverted to the Valley, reaffirming its role as the epicenter of militancy.

Narrative Damage: The Myth of ‘Zero Terrorism’

• The most enduring damage from the Pahalgam attack may be to the Indian government’s narrative of “normalcy” and “zero terrorism” post the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
• The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) had used high tourist numbers — over 23 million in 2024 — to underscore the return of peace.
• However, the attack underscores the fragility of this portrayal. The illusion of total control and peace is shattered, revealing the persistent undercurrent of instability.

Redefining ‘Normalcy’ in a Conflict Zone

• The article challenges simplistic notions of normalcy in J&K. With a history of over 35 years of violence and cycles of intense conflict, a sharp reduction in fatalities — from 4,011 in 2001 to 127 in 2024 — constitutes a form of normalcy, albeit within a framework of managed conflict rather than absolute peace.
• The decline in militant numbers and fatalities is a testament to the effectiveness of sustained counter-terrorism efforts, even if the complete eradication of terrorism remains a distant goal.

Diminishing Terrorist Capacity

• The drastic reduction in the number of active terrorists — now estimated at just 76 — marks a major shift from the early 2000s, when thousands operated in the region.
• This includes only 17 local militants, indicating a significant loss of local support and recruitment potential.
• While foreign terrorists continue to infiltrate, their impact is increasingly limited by effective surveillance and counter-insurgency measures.

TRF and the Pakistan Connection

• The Pahalgam attack is attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a known proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), operating with Pakistan’s tacit, if not direct, support.
• Pakistani denials ring hollow given the operational scale and intelligence linking the attackers to LeT/TRF.
• This highlights the persistent role of Pakistan in sustaining low-intensity conflict in the region, even as it distances itself diplomatically from overt acts of terror.

Retaliation: Between Theatrics and Strategy

• The article concludes with a critical evaluation of potential Indian responses.
• While past actions — such as surgical strikes and the Balakot air raid — have been politically popular, their strategic effectiveness remains debatable.
• Calls for overt military retaliation, often amplified by media frenzy, risk escalation without guaranteed success.
• Instead, the article advocates for covert, strategically calculated responses that avoid provocation while delivering effective deterrence.
• This restrained approach emphasizes long-term strategic thinking over impulsive or politically motivated action.

Practice Question: The recent attack on tourists in Pahalgam marks a significant shift in the operational patterns of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. Critically analyze the implications of this shift on internal security, tourism, and the broader narrative of normalcy in the region.  (250 Words /15 marks)

Read more – 23 April 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis